By Sean Sterling
Why I Started with a Single Shot
My journey into moonshot stocks began with a personal connection: a friend was hired by Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX), giving me unique insight and confidence in the company’s mission. I took my first moonshot there, fully aware of both the upside and the risk.
The Power—and Limits—of Diversification
As I reflected, I realized that putting all my speculative chips on one stock, no matter how promising, was risky. If CRNX underperformed, my entire “moonshot” sleeve could be wiped out. So I started broadening my approach. My first step was to expand into three more speculative picks: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Avidity Biosciences (RNA), and Solid Power (SLDP). So far, I’ve only bought VKTX, waiting for better entry points on RNA and SLDP. That patience is part of the discipline. Meanwhile, I’ve decided to build out this sleeve even further—aiming for around 10 total moonshot names to meaningfully improve my odds of catching an outlier.
How Big Should a Moonshot Portfolio Be?
Most seasoned investors suggest limiting these kinds of high-risk bets to around 5% or less of your overall portfolio. That’s roughly where I’m keeping it. It’s enough to be exciting and meaningful if it hits big, without putting my broader financial foundation at risk.
The Odds and the Math
Holding just a few speculative stocks means your chances of finding a true outlier are quite slim. Research from venture investing suggests that a basket of 10–20 high-upside bets gives you a far better shot at having at least one deliver outsized returns. That’s why I’ve made the decision to gradually expand this speculative sleeve, allocating another $10,000 across roughly 10 moonshot stocks over the next year, always with disciplined entry prices and clear risk limits.
“Buying 10 of them may give you a shot at capturing a moonshot.”
— Bogleheads forum on 100x moonshot strategies
If even one becomes a 20x winner, it could more than pay for all the others that might end up worthless—capturing the asymmetric payoff that makes this strategy worthwhile.
Why I’m Using My Roth IRA
I’ve chosen to hold these speculative bets inside my Roth IRA, so any big future gains can grow entirely tax-free. An added bonus is that trades inside a Roth don’t create a stack of paperwork—I won’t have to track or report every buy and sell on my taxes. While losses can’t be deducted in a Roth, that’s a tradeoff I’m happy to make for the chance at completely untaxed moonshot wins.
My New Watchlist: 10 Moonshot Stocks
With help from Perplexity, I’ve pulled together this fresh list of high-upside names. I plan to build positions patiently as prices come into my target ranges.
| Ticker | Company Name | Sector | Recent Price* | Suggested Entry Price | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | Bloom Energy | Clean Energy | $24.24 | $12.00 | Fuel cell/hydrogen play, volatile but strong growth |
| WGS | GeneDx Holdings | Genomics | $89.79 | $85.00 | Genomics/AI, rapid revenue growth, high volatility |
| GEO | GEO Group | REIT/Prisons | $25.32 | $25.00 | Private prisons, policy catalyst, uptrend |
| ROOT | Root Inc. | Insurtech | $124.71 | $125.00 | AI-driven car insurance, momentum, high risk |
| SNWV | Sanuwave Health | Medtech | $31.65 | $28.00 | FDA-cleared wound care tech, speculative |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | AI/Software | $134.36 | $120.00 | AI/data analytics leader, volatile, high valuation |
| VNET | VNET Group | Data Centers | $7.75 | $3.00 | China data center, up 298% last year, high risk |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies | Lidar/Auto | $32.89 | $32.00 | Lidar for autonomous vehicles, small-cap, volatile |
| MAZE | Maze Therapeutics | Biotech IPO | $11.50 | $10.00 | Precision medicine, new IPO, CKD/cardiometabolic |
| BOX | Box Inc. | Cloud/AI | $33.26 | $30.00 | AI cloud, post-earnings breakout, momentum |
*Recent prices as of July 2025 or most recent available. Please confirm with your broker before placing orders.
I’ll continue to be patient, using limit orders and sticking to small position sizes. This gives me a structured way to pursue moonshot returns without letting these bets derail my long-term financial security.
🚩 What Could Go Wrong?
- Most moonshots fail (by design—they’re long shots).
- Small caps can get crushed by sentiment or liquidity issues.
- New competitors, dilution, or regulation can quickly change the outlook.
My Takeaways
- Start with conviction, but diversify for resilience.
- Size your bets relative to your total portfolio.
- Use tax-advantaged accounts like a Roth IRA to shelter future gains—and skip trading paperwork.
- Build your watchlist and plan your entries before the next market drop.
- Stay patient, disciplined, and always keep learning.
What’s your approach to speculative investing? How do you balance risk and reward? I’d love to hear your thoughts—let’s learn and grow together.