Capital First: Why Missing Extra Gain Matters Less Than Losing Money


The Real-World Power of “Don’t Lose Money”

Warren Buffett’s Rule No.1 is as simple as it is eternal: “Never lose money.” Rule No.2? “Never forget Rule No.1.”

In a world obsessed with big winners, moonshots, and FOMO-fueled trading, this mindset is more important than ever. Missing out on extra gains may sting your pride, but losing capital puts your whole compounding future at risk.

Case Study: CRNX and the FDA FOMO Trap

Recently, I felt a familiar urge: “Why not put even more into CRNX (Crinetics) ahead of the big FDA decision?”

  • Management was highly confident in approval. The company ramped up hiring, prepped for global sales, —all signs pointing to a bullish launch.
  • It would have been easy to break my risk rules and double down early—aiming to ride the “sure thing” wave.

But then I remembered my process: nothing is guaranteed before official news—even the most confident management can be surprised. If I let CRNX swell beyond my pre-set allocation, a single setback could have torpedoed months of portfolio work.

Instead, I kept CRNX at its planned size—accepting that I might “miss out” on extra upside, but knowing I’d survive any negative surprise.

The Benefits of Prioritizing Capital Protection

  • Freedom to Play Again: Avoiding a catastrophic loss means you preserve cash for the next opportunity—essential in moonshot investing.
  • Peace of Mind: No single trade can ruin your portfolio or your sleep. This unlocks better, more rational decisions next time around.
  • Long-Term Compounding: Protecting against big drawdowns is the secret to letting winners work.

Why Most Investors Forget This

  • FOMO Culture: Social media celebrates every jackpot and “woulda-coulda-shoulda.” The sting of seeing a stock double without you can override your better instincts.
  • Hindsight Bias: It’s tempting to believe every signal was obvious… after the fact.
  • Emotional Risk: Losses have double the psychological impact of missed gains, but we calibrate our moves to fantasy winners, not real-world downside.

Make It Your Process: Lessons & Takeaways

  • Size every moonshot to risk, not upside.
  • No “bet the farm” positions—
    not even in the face of management confidence or consensus optimism.
  • Only increase allocation after official, positive catalysts.
    Never before.
  • Accept that “missing the last 20%” is a win, not a regret, if your capital is intact for the next trade.

Buffett reminds us: Don’t lose money. I’d add—don’t let “what if” FOMO trades scramble the process. Missing extra gains is survivable. Losing a big chunk? That’s the game-changer you want to avoid.

Closing Thought

If you ever find yourself tempted to “go big or go home,” step back and remember: staying in the game—and letting your capital compound over many seasons—is the edge that separates the real winners from the flashes in the pan.

It’s okay to miss a hero trade, as long as you keep your capital safe. You only need to get rich once.

Disclaimer: The ideas expressed here are for education and reflection, not investing advice. Risk management and discipline are the heart of my process. Please do your own research or consult a professional.


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